Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 106.222880 121.156725 137.874497 158.057389 181.870334 209.202362 243.134460
2026-02-01 83.898373 102.284456 124.589606 153.918976 191.880793 239.924851 306.243795
2026-02-08 69.909310 89.492645 114.709676 150.092336 199.318115 266.691829 368.219063
2026-02-15 60.282167 80.194925 107.081775 146.847423 205.577723 291.466517 431.144980
2026-02-22 56.482266 77.878589 108.083807 155.059808 228.586255 343.413569 545.189908
2026-03-01 51.654458 73.334007 105.080402 156.568628 241.226583 381.162439 644.498416
2026-03-08 47.801248 69.660228 102.741732 158.487092 254.416691 421.681201 757.859693
2026-03-15 44.131009 65.798490 99.554891 158.407374 263.931269 457.146608 870.118228
2026-03-22 42.634061 65.121034 101.250883 166.589766 289.105181 525.902605 1068.427913
2026-03-29 41.026409 64.060641 102.130474 173.354017 312.635745 596.101812 1291.053224
2026-04-05 39.375235 62.737150 102.368170 178.894924 334.600653 667.558581 1539.751127
2026-04-12 37.224644 60.347123 100.462948 180.086505 347.843470 722.751226 1765.842503
2026-04-19 34.941582 57.605558 97.795534 179.751544 358.505668 776.116358 2012.071333
2026-04-26 32.385318 54.164446 93.518242 175.670082 360.360797 809.137248 2213.455168
2026-05-03 30.074191 50.972820 89.400791 171.396256 361.080116 839.611766 2420.310600
2026-05-10 28.065333 48.170335 85.756707 167.652272 362.394444 871.976883 2647.936623
2026-05-17 27.731606 48.462694 88.153837 177.297977 397.996330 1007.684695 3312.285922
2026-05-24 26.579329 47.093676 87.095504 179.073907 414.095117 1091.952275 3829.131044
2026-05-31 25.564998 45.908605 86.293821 181.327957 431.900767 1186.674828 4448.478303
2026-06-07 24.412371 44.360325 84.591713 181.234746 443.336731 1264.626554 5044.564609
2026-06-14 24.181796 44.638602 86.777968 190.851973 484.140051 1454.562482 6335.991299
2026-06-21 23.801024 44.576262 88.215362 198.813746 521.945004 1648.253881 7830.826915
2026-06-28 23.315529 44.255759 89.046588 205.343048 556.928358 1845.269604 9553.406211